Can Giannis Antetokounmpo not even make the play-in? American reporter downplays new Heat: They can only rank 11th in the East

On August 9th Beijing time, the Miami Heat pulled off the biggest transaction of the offseason, landing Giannis Antetokounmpo. But The Ringer's Michael Pina thinks this Heat squad won't even reach the play-in. On his most recent podcast, Pina forecasted Miami to be the 11th seed in the East next year.

"I have a lot of questions about the offense," Pina said. "The team's three-point shooting, floor spacing, and offensive creativity are far from ideal. I could understand the Bucks' style last year, but in 2025, 2026, and beyond in the NBA, that model won't win games. As for the Heat's current moves, I simply don't understand their team-building philosophy."

"They got Giannis," Pina stated, "but they emptied their entire rotation depth, sending away all the key role players who supported the original offensive system. Recall their playing style last year: pushing the pace to the max, whether shots went in or not, grabbing the ball and pushing full speed in transition, taking at most one or two passes before attacking the rim, and letting the chips fall where they may."

"Jaime Jaquez Jr. is a crucial piece of this system," Pina continued. "Herro later became a core player, and Powell was also an important component... The team only has one movement shooter—Tim Hardaway Jr., who had his best three-point season last year, but don't forget, he was playing alongside Jokic."

"But this Heat team doesn't have Jokic," Pina added. "Once his three-point percentage drops to 34-35%, the entire offensive system collapses. Looking at the roster, they don't even have a backup center... The team is also extremely lacking in shooting. The pairing of Giannis and Adebayo has poor compatibility, which is why I rank the Heat 11th in the East."

Pina acknowledges that the Heat will have a very strong defense, but he predicts the team will struggle mightily to score. He also points out another reason for ranking the Heat 11th: the other teams in the East either improved or are fully healthy. This year might be a rare season where the overall strength of the East is clearly stronger than the West.

Last season, the Heat finished 43-39, placing 10th in the East. They lost their first play-in game to the Charlotte Hornets, ending their streak of six consecutive playoff appearances.

Clearly, the team had to make a change, and the Heat went all-in to acquire Giannis from the Bucks. Miami sent out Herro, Ware, Jaime Jaquez Jr., Jakučionis, Ament (the 13th pick in the 2026 NBA Draft), two first-round picks, a pick swap, and a second-round pick, in exchange for Giannis and Portis.

Pina believes the Heat paid too much and failed to sign replacements to fill the roster gaps. So far, Tim Hardaway Jr. is the only free agent they have signed this offseason. The analyst thinks that without Nuggets superstar Jokic, Hardaway's offensive efficiency is likely to drop significantly.

Even if Hardaway can maintain his hot shooting, three-point shooting remains a weakness for the Heat. The team also lacks a primary playmaker, which is why they pursued LeBron James earlier. Miami was considered one of the favorites to sign James, but he ultimately chose to join the Philadelphia 76ers.

Radio host Justin Termine previously said that if James didn't come to South Beach, the Heat might not make the top six in the East. Pina's assessment is even more pessimistic, as he believes the Heat will miss the playoffs entirely.

The Heat will continue to make additions before the new season begins, but can they land a true game-changing star? There are rumors they are interested in Klay and DeRozan, but at this stage, both are merely decent players. There are no free agents left who can completely alter a team's fortunes.

Where do you predict the Heat will finish in the East next season? Feel free to leave your comments and thoughts.