30 Teams in 30 Days Deep Dive: Can the Rockets Break into the Western Conference's Top Tier? Adams Becomes the Biggest X-Factor

On August 11, Beijing time, ESPN's panel of experts analyzed each franchise's offseason activities and looked ahead to the 2026-27 season for all 30 teams. This series will be updated every weekday until September 19, with a separate deep dive for each team covering the most anticipated core questions and critical X-factors. The opening day (August 11) features the Houston Rockets.

In the second season of the Durant era, can the Houston Rockets establish themselves as a consistent contender in the Western Conference with championship aspirations?

Looking back at the 2025-26 season, that question seemed out of reach at the time. Throughout the season, the team faced constant uncertainty at point guard, rampant trade rumors, and a first-round playoff exit—a 2-4 series loss to the Los Angeles Lakers that ended their campaign abruptly.

The answer may lie in the veteran acquisitions made during the offseason, or perhaps in the growing chemistry between Durant, Amen, and Sengun on the court, while also relying on VanVleet and Adams to stay healthy and maintain consistent availability.

Offseason Overview

Key Additions: Marcus Smart (guard), Bogdan Bogdanović (guard)

Core Extension: Tari Eason (forward)

Key Departures: Dorian Finney-Smith (forward), Josh Okogie (guard)

For the second straight year, the Rockets exited in the first round of the playoffs, but they did not join the frenzy for Giannis Antetokounmpo. After acquiring former MVP Kevin Durant last year, General Manager Rafael Stone and Head Coach Ime Udoka chose a different path: relying on the continued growth of young talent accumulated over recent years and the on-court chemistry built through multiple seasons of playing together.

This summer, the Rockets signed Tari Eason to a five-year, $81.5 million extension. Beyond that, the team focused on bolstering bench depth by adding veterans Marcus Smart and Bogdan Bogdanović. They also hired renowned shooting coach Chip Engelland from the Thunder, who spent over a decade with the San Antonio Spurs and won two championships with the team.

Offseason Grade: B+

A disappointing first-round loss to a depleted Lakers squad cooled expectations for the Rockets, but there's no denying they executed another solid offseason.

The cost of trading Dorian Finney-Smith's contract—three second-round picks—was significant. However, the Rockets stayed committed to their defensive identity, signing Marcus Smart and retaining Eason on a team-friendly deal. Eason's five-year, $81.5 million contract as a restricted free agent is arguably one of the best values of the summer.

Key Takeaways from the Offseason

From 2007 to 2020, under General Manager Daryl Morey, the Rockets were known for constantly swapping stars in pursuit of a championship: Dwight Howard, James Harden, Chris Paul, and Russell Westbrook all landed in Houston.

Even after being eliminated in the first round by a shorthanded Lakers squad, Stone did not choose to dismantle the coaching staff or rebuild the roster. He retained Udoka, extended Eason, added veterans Smart and Bogdanović, and moved on from Finney-Smith, who contributed little last season.

The Rockets are banking on Fred VanVleet returning from a torn ACL in his right knee, while a group of young players, having grown together over the past year, can make a breakthrough in the playoffs. This bet is plausible: the Thunder, Lakers, and Timberwolves all lost key players this summer. But the prerequisite is that the interior duo of Durant and Sengun, in their second season together, must operate more efficiently.

One thing is clear: if the Rockets cannot improve their stagnant offense that completely collapsed in the playoffs, the front office will soon face immense pressure to make changes.

Core Question: Do the Rockets have the real ability to contend for the upper tier of the Western Conference?

The answer awaits on-court validation.

Undoubtedly, the Thunder and Spurs are firmly in the top tier of the West, but the Rockets have the capability to compete. In his second year with the team, Durant will be more familiar with the system; VanVleet is expected to return from injury, eliminating the need for multiple players to fill the point guard void. VanVleet suffered an ACL tear before training camp last season, ending his year. Center Steven Adams is also expected to return after undergoing surgery on his left ankle in January, cutting his season short.

Last season, Thompson and Reed Sheppard were entrusted with significant roles and gained valuable experience, which will pay dividends in the new season. Sengun will no longer have to shoulder as much playmaking responsibility, freeing him to attack the paint more aggressively.

Basketball Power Index (BPI) Ranking: 9th

Below is the expected net efficiency per 100 possessions for the Rockets' projected top seven players in the 2026-27 season:

Over the past three years, against top-tier opponents, Durant posted a net efficiency of +2.8 per 48 minutes, ranking in the top 10 in the league. He was followed by Jabari Smith Jr. (+0.6), Sengun (+0.2), Amen Thompson (-1.0), and Sheppard (-1.3). For the Rockets to advance further in the playoffs, at least some of their young players need to improve their net efficiency to +1.0 or higher. After all, reaching the second round or beyond means facing elite teams at every turn.

Biggest X-Factor This Season: Center Steven Adams

When Adams was on the court last season, the Rockets' net efficiency was a staggering +11.8, the highest on the team. His unique style of play compensated for many offensive shortcomings. According to Cleaning the Glass, the Rockets grabbed an incredible 44% of their own offensive rebounds with Adams on the floor.

Adams underwent ankle surgery in January and missed the remainder of the season; the team's late-season decline was no coincidence. The Rockets are hoping he stays healthy, but since the 2021-22 season, he has never played more than 60 games in a single campaign.