Supercomputer predicts surprising outcome for Real Madrid vs Bayern Munich match

The Opta supercomputer delivers a tense prediction for the epic clash between Real Madrid and Bayern Munich at the Bernabéu, where the strength equilibrium is evaluated as very close in the Champions League quarter-final first leg.

Real Madrid vs Bayern Munich: Notable statistics

Real Madrid (22 times) and Bayern (24 times) are the two teams with the most appearances in the Champions League quarter-finals in history. Harry Kane is the only English player to score 10 or more goals in two consecutive seasons in the Champions League.

Coach Álvaro Arbeloa and Real Madrid will host Bayern Munich in the eagerly awaited match at the Bernabéu. In the round of 16, the Royal club defeated Manchester City with an aggregate score of 5-1, while Bayern crushed Atalanta 10-2 over two legs.

However, Vincent Kompany's Bayern is not an opponent easily beaten. The German team boasts an impressive scoring efficiency this season with an average of 3.2 goals per match, only behind the two most explosive seasons in the club's history. They have scored 32 goals in 10 matches, surpassing last season's total (31 goals/14 matches).

According to Opta, despite a poor head-to-head record, Bayern is still rated higher with 42.7% chance of winning, compared to 33.2% for Real Madrid, while the probability of a draw is 24.1%. Overall, Bayern has a 64.5% chance of reaching the semi-finals and a 20.9% chance of winning the title, while Real Madrid's figures are 35.5% and 8.3% respectively.

Real Madrid and Bayern are also the two teams with the most wins in Champions League history, with 309 and 248 wins respectively, and nearly identical win rates (60.23% vs 60.19%).

Mbappe vs Kane: the focal point of the showdown

Kylian Mbappé and Harry Kane are expected to be the decisive factors. Mbappé is in exceptional scoring form with 13 goals in 9 matches, averaging a goal every 56 minutes, only behind Erling Haaland in the 2019-20 season.

Meanwhile, Kane has scored 10 goals this season, extending his streak of two consecutive seasons with over 10 goals in the Champions League, and is also Bayern's top scorer in this competition since joining (29 goals/34 matches).

Squad situation

Real Madrid suffers a significant loss as goalkeeper Thibaut Courtois continues to be absent due to injury. Additionally, Dani Ceballos, Ferland Mendy, and Rodrygo are also unavailable.

On Bayern's side, Harry Kane missed the recent win against Freiburg but is likely to return for this match.

Expected lineup

Real Madrid: Lunin; Carreras, Huijsen, Rudiger, Alexander-Arnold; Guler, Tchouameni, Pitarch, Valverde; Vinicius, Mbappe

Coach: Álvaro Arbeloa

Bayern Munich: Neuer; Laimer, Tah, Upamecano, Stanisic; Pavlovic, Kimmich; Diaz, Gnabry, Olise; Kane

Coach: Vincent Kompany