Latest Ballon d'Or odds: 32-year-old Kane back on top! Nearly 50% chance to win, Rodri rises to third.

On July 20th Beijing time, the World Cup ended. In the deciding match, Spain beat Argentina 1-0 after extra time to become champions. Following the game, data institutions released the latest odds for the 2026 Ballon d'Or.

With Argentina failing to retain the title, the chance for 39-year-old Messi to win the Ballon d'Or plummeted, dropping to seventh place with only a 3% probability.

The 32-year-old England captain Kane returned to the top with 49%. Although Kane didn't win the Golden Boot in this World Cup and England only finished third, he scored an astonishing 73 goals this season for club and country, with outstanding individual statistics. Combined with his Bundesliga title at Bayern, he became the biggest favorite.

Following Spain's victory, Yamal rose to second place with a 27% probability. However, Yamal's personal statistics in this World Cup were not impressive, which is the biggest obstacle to his winning the Ballon d'Or.

Meanwhile, Spain captain Rodri, who won the World Cup Golden Ball, saw his odds of winning the Ballon d'Or for the second time increase, moving to third place with an 8% probability.

Appendix: Latest odds for the 2026 Ballon d'Or winner

1- Kane (England/Bayern Munich): 49%

2- Yamal (Spain/Barcelona): 27%

3- Rodri (Spain/Manchester City): 8%

3- Kvaratskhelia (Georgia/Paris Saint-Germain): 8%

5- Mbappé (France/Real Madrid): 7%

5- Dembélé (France/Paris Saint-Germain): 7%

7- Messi (Argentina/Inter Miami): 3%

(Other candidates have less than 1% probability)