FIFA ASEAN Cup puts Vietnam's World Cup dream in question

Vietnam will have another official tournament to vie for honors in the form of the FIFA ASEAN Cup, yet the quality of exposure is what truly matters. With more and more games against regional rivals, the puzzle of progressing in Asia grows more pressing.

FIFA ASEAN Cup 2026 is expected to open a new chapter for Southeast Asian football as it will be held for the first time within the expanded FIFA Days window, with matches counting for FIFA rankings and featuring the strongest squads from each team. However, right after the draw, a paradox emerged for Vietnam: Playing more does not necessarily mean quality improvement.

Looking at the group, Vietnam will face Thailand, the Philippines, and Pakistan in turn. Apart from the appearance of Pakistan, a team making its debut outside South Asia, the other opponents are all too familiar to Vietnamese football. This leads many to question whether the FIFA ASEAN Cup is truly a expanded, or just a version stamped with FIFA's labelof the AFF Cup.

In theory, having an additional official tournament is a positive sign. Vietnam will have more quality matches during FIFA Days, and no longer have to assemble patchwork squads like in ordinary friendlies. However, the problem lies in the quality of opponents.

If the FIFA ASEAN Cup continues to be held alongside the AFF Cup and World Cup qualifiers in even-numbered years, Vietnam could end up facing Southeast Asian teams nearly 10 times a year. In fact, this has happened before. In 2024, the Golden Star Warriors had 11 out of 17 international matches against regional opponents. Opportunities to compete against higher-level teams were very limited.

This is the major challenge for Vietnamese football at the moment. Following the policy of expanded naturalization and the increasing presence of overseas Vietnamese players, the team currently boasts one of the strongest squads in Southeast Asia. In the near future, the starting lineup could even feature 7-8 naturalized or Vietnamese-origin players.

With such a squad, what is needed is not more matches against familiar opponents, but rather tests against higher-level football nations. Only by regularly facing top Asian teams can Vietnam accurately assess its capabilities, refine its playing style, and gradually narrow the gap toward the World Cup goal.

The lesson from Chinese football is a clear example. After the COVID-19 pandemic, they regularly maintained many international friendlies but mainly against comparable opponents from Central Asia. As a result, their professional quality did not improve commensurately with investment, while their FIFA ranking stagnated. In contrast, Japan and South Korea have always proactively chosen stronger opponents to create pressure and drive development.

Nevertheless, before thinking about changing the roadmap, Vietnam still needs to prove its number-one status in the region. With the current squad, Coach Kim Sang-sik's goal is not only to win the FIFA ASEAN Cup but also to build a playing style capable of dominating Southeast Asian opponents. Only by stepping out of the comfort zone with convincing performances can Vietnamese football have a basis to aim for greater challenges on the path to conquering the continental stage and, further, the World Cup dream.