Vietnam's national team faces the possibility of elimination due to opponents "colluding" in the final round of the ASEAN Cup 2026 group stage.

Vietnam's national team is in danger of early elimination from the ASEAN Cup 2026 group stage if they cannot beat Indonesia.

More worryingly, if coach Kim Sang-sik's team fails, the fate of the red-shirted team could depend entirely on the match between Indonesia and Singapore in the final round.

The 0-0 draw with Singapore put Vietnam in a difficult position. After three matches, Singapore leads Group A with 7 points, Indonesia is second with 6 points from two wins, while Vietnam has only 4 points. Despite having a +7 goal difference thanks to a 7-0 thrashing of Timor Leste, coach Kim Sang-sik's team currently sits in third place.

According to the schedule, Vietnam will face Indonesia on August 3. This is seen as a decisive match for the race to the semifinals. If they secure all three points, Vietnam will overtake Indonesia and regain control of their destiny. However, any other result could significantly narrow their path forward.

The most dangerous scenario occurs if Vietnam loses to Indonesia. In that case, coach Kim Sang-sik's squad still has a match against Cambodia, but even a win would only give Vietnam a maximum of 7 points. Meanwhile, Indonesia would reach 9 points after three matches and officially secure a semifinal berth.

Notably, once Indonesia is certain to advance, they may not need to field their strongest lineup in the final match against Singapore. If Singapore earns at least one point, they will have a minimum of 8 points and will definitely be above Vietnam. Then, Vietnam would be eliminated regardless of the result against Cambodia.

This is the basis for the scenario fans call "collusion" or "match-fixing" in Group A. However, it must be emphasized that Indonesia using a reserve lineup when already assured of advancement does not mean the two teams are engaging in match-fixing. From a professional standpoint, Indonesia has the right to manage their squad, rest key players, and give opportunities to less-used players.

Another scenario that Vietnam must be particularly wary of is if the red-shirted team only draws with Indonesia. When teams are tied on points, head-to-head record is prioritized according to tournament rules. If Vietnam draws 0-0 with Indonesia, then coach Kim Sang-sik's team would be eliminated if Indonesia draws with Singapore with goals in the final round (in the case of three teams tied on points).

Therefore, the match between Vietnam and Indonesia is nothing less than an "early final." A victory would help coach Kim Sang-sik's team completely avoid the risk of relying on their opponents. Conversely, if they lose the three points, the Vietnamese team may have to live in anxiety until the final round of Group A concludes.