ASEAN Cup 2026: Vietnam National Team Faces Chance to Break Away Curse

According to a VNA correspondent in Jakarta, statistics show Indonesia had 62% possession, took 19 shots, with 9 on target. However, John Herdman's side had to wait until the 74th minute to break the deadlock, despite Timor Leste playing with 10 men from the 21st minute after defender Jackson Fowler's red card.

This development shows that Indonesia struggle to break down well-organized defenses. Striker Mitchell Baker, who scored a hat-trick in the opening match, was nearly neutralized for over an hour. The 1.96m tall forward had few opportunities to turn in the box, forcing Indonesia to shift more attacks to the flanks.

Another reason for Indonesia's difficulties was coach Herdman's decision to deploy playmaker Thom Haye on the left wing for most of the first half. This significantly reduced his ability to control the tempo and make through passes, which are his strengths as a Dutch-born midfielder.

Only after the break, when Haye returned to his preferred central midfield position, did Indonesia gradually regain control. With Timor Leste tiring and playing a man down, Haye made the difference with accurate wide passes and a beautiful free kick that made it 2-0 in the 78th minute.

The win over Timor Leste also showed Indonesia's heavy reliance on their strongest lineup. Herdman was forced to bring on Ragnar Oratmangoen, Pamungkas, and Pattynama in the second half to change the game. This trio directly contributed to all three goals, with Pamungkas assisting Pattynama for the opener, and Baker scoring from a favorable left-wing cross.

Notably, Indonesia expended a lot of energy in this match. Baker showed signs of muscle strain after constant battles, while many other players could not maintain the pressing intensity seen against Cambodia. Having to use nearly their entire strongest squad just to beat Timor Leste also leaves Herdman with few surprise options against Vietnam.

On the other hand, Vietnam can find opportunities if they exploit the spaces Indonesia leaves when pushing high up. The most important thing for Kim Sang-sik's side is to improve their finishing, avoiding wasted chances like in the 0-0 draw with Singapore.

Nevertheless, the challenge for Vietnam remains immense. Indonesia will play in front of tens of thousands of home fans, and Baker is likely to be more dangerous with Thom Haye supporting him in his preferred position. Not only facing an in-form opponent, Vietnam also has to overcome a 'curse' lasting over two decades. Historically in the ASEAN Cup (formerly known as AFF Cup and Tiger Cup), Indonesia has never lost to Vietnam at home, with a record of 1 win, 3 draws in 4 meetings.

The two teams previously drew 2-2 in the 2002 Tiger Cup, 1-1 in the 2007 AFF Cup, Indonesia won 2-1 in the 2016 AFF Cup semifinal before advancing to the final with a 4-3 aggregate, and most recently a 0-0 draw in the 2022 AFF Cup semifinal.

Currently after two matches, Vietnam has 4 points, standing third in Group A, behind Singapore (7 points, one game more) and Indonesia (6 points). If they lose at Pakansari, Kim Sang-sik's squad will face a very high risk of elimination in the group stage.

These results show that Indonesia has a certain advantage in home encounters, but those are just statistics. More importantly, Indonesia's performance against Timor Leste shows that the 'Land of a Thousand Islands' is not invincible. If Vietnam can overcome their finishing limitations and perform to their true potential, they have every reason to aim for a positive result, while breaking the curse of never having beaten Indonesia away in Southeast Asia's premier tournament.