ASEAN Cup 2026: Vietnam aims for the semifinals as group leaders

The Vietnamese team displayed the quality and stature of defending champions by defeating hosts Indonesia 3-0 at Pakansari Stadium in Bogor. This impressive performance by Kim Sang-sik's squad significantly boosted their chances of reaching the semifinals and gave them a major advantage in the race for first place in Group A ahead of the final round.

In the final group match on August 7, Vietnam will host Cambodia at My Dinh Stadium, while Indonesia will travel to face Singapore. These two matches will decide the two tickets to the semifinals from Group A.

The race for the semifinals in Group A is now a three-way battle among Vietnam, Singapore (both with 7 points), and Indonesia (6 points). Indonesia’s path to the next round is considered more difficult, as they must play away against Singapore in the final match. The Lions need only a draw to advance, while the archipelago team must win to avoid elimination.

After four matches, Vietnam leads Group A, tied on points with Singapore but ahead on goal difference. Indonesia sits third. Cambodia (3 points) and Timor-Leste (0 points) occupy the bottom two positions.

With 7 points and the two chasing teams facing each other directly, Vietnam's path to the semifinals is wide open. However, in theory, Kim Sang-sik’s side still faces a risk of elimination, though the probability is very low.

In the final group-stage match, Vietnam will take on Cambodia, while Indonesia will face Singapore. The Golden Stars will secure a semifinal spot and top the group if they beat Cambodia.

If they win, Vietnam is almost certain to finish first, unless Singapore beats Indonesia by an improbable margin to surpass Kim Sang-sik's team on goal difference.

If Vietnam draws with Cambodia in the final match, they will still reach the semifinals. With 8 points, Vietnam would definitely finish above either Indonesia or Singapore, regardless of the result between those two teams. Vietnam would still top the group if the match between Singapore and Indonesia ends in a draw. In that case, Vietnam and Singapore would both have 8 points, but Kim Sang-sik’s side would likely be ahead due to a superior goal difference.

Vietnam would only be eliminated if they lose heavily to Cambodia and Singapore loses narrowly to Indonesia. The defeat to the Angkor Warriors would have to be by a margin large enough to drop Vietnam's goal difference below that of Singapore. Currently, Vietnam has a goal difference of +10, while Singapore has +3.

This scenario is almost impossible. Cambodia has never beaten Vietnam in 11 encounters and has never scored more than two goals against the Vietnamese team. Besides the gap in quality, Cambodia has already been eliminated, so they lack motivation.

Vietnam holds a significant advantage in goal difference (+10) over Singapore (+3). Therefore, Kim Sang-sik's team would have to suffer a large-margin defeat to Cambodia for Singapore to overtake them on the tiebreaker. Specifically, Vietnam would only be eliminated if they lose 0-9 to Cambodia and Singapore loses 0-1 to Indonesia. In other words, this is a very unlikely scenario. As long as they avoid a heavy loss to Cambodia, Vietnam stands a very good chance of reaching the semifinals.

If that "unthinkable" scenario occurs, Indonesia would top Group A. Singapore and Vietnam would both have 7 points, but the Lions would finish second on goal difference.

If they secure the top spot in Group A, Vietnam would not only face a favorable opponent in the semifinals—likely avoiding an early meeting with Thailand—but also, according to the predetermined schedule, the group winner plays the second leg of the semifinal at home. If they advance to the final, they would also play the second leg of the final at home.

With a convincing performance against Indonesia and an advantage in goal difference, Vietnam holds a favorable opportunity to achieve their goal of topping Group A, thereby building a solid foundation for their title defense at the ASEAN Cup 2026.

The Vietnamese team will face Cambodia in the final group match at 8:00 PM on August 7 at My Dinh Stadium in Hanoi.